Open Access
Issue
Wuhan Univ. J. Nat. Sci.
Volume 29, Number 1, February 2024
Page(s) 21 - 28
DOI https://doi.org/10.1051/wujns/2024291021
Published online 15 March 2024

© Wuhan University 2023

Licence Creative CommonsThis is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

0 Introduction

In this section we consider a one-dimensional risk model, in which the surplus at time t0Mathematical equation is described as

U ( t ) = x + c t - i = 1 N ( t ) X i Mathematical equation(1)

where x0Mathematical equation is the initial surplus, c>0Mathematical equation is the constant premium rate and the claim size {Xi,i1}Mathematical equation are independent, identically distributed (i.i.d.) and nonnegative random variables with common distribution FMathematical equation and finite mean. {τi,i1}Mathematical equation are the claim-arrival times, which constitute the claim-number process

N ( t ) = s u p { i 0 : τ i t } , t 0 Mathematical equation

with a finite mean function λ(t)=E(N(t))Mathematical equation, t0Mathematical equation, where sup=0Mathematical equation and τ0=0Mathematical equation by convention. The nonnegative random variables {θi=τi-τi-1,i1}Mathematical equation are the claim inter-arrival times, which are independent of {Xi,i1}Mathematical equation. For the risk model (1), the finite-time ruin probability up to time t0Mathematical equation is defined as

ψ ( x , t ) = P ( i n f 0 s t U ( s ) < 0 | U ( 0 ) = x ) Mathematical equation(2)

The risk model (1) has been widely studied and results under various conditions are presented. For the uniform asymptotics of the finite-time ruin probability ψ(x,t)Mathematical equation as xMathematical equation, when {θi,i1}Mathematical equation are i.i.d., Tang [1] investigated the case that the claim sizes have consistently-varying-tailed distributions and obtained the asymptotics of ψ(x,t)Mathematical equation holds uniformly for tΛ={t0: λ(t)>0}Mathematical equation. In the case where the distributions of the claim sizes are from a subclass of subexponential distribution class, Leipus and Šiaulys [2] presented the asymptotics of ψ(x,t)Mathematical equation holds uniformly for t[f(x),γx]Mathematical equation, where f(x)Mathematical equation is an infinitely increasing function and γ>0Mathematical equation is a constant. Leipus and Šiaulys [3] and Kočetova et al [4] considered the claim sizes have strong subexponential distributions and showed the asymptotics of ψ(x,t)Mathematical equation holds uniformly for t[f(x),)Mathematical equation. Yang et al[5] and Wang et al[6] improved the above results by considering the dependent {θi,i1}Mathematical equation. Chen et al [7] established a two-dimensional risk model for (1) and obtained some corresponding results for i.i.d. {θi,i1}Mathematical equation. Chen et al [8] extended the results of Chen et al [7] by considering the dependent {θi,i1}Mathematical equation.

In the above literatures, they mainly considered the claim inter-arrival times {θi,i1}Mathematical equation are i.i.d or have some dependence structures. Few articles have studied the claim-number process is non-stationary. In fact, a non-stationary claim-number process may be more practical. Stabile and Torrisi [9] derived the infinite and finite time ruin probabilities for the risk model with a non-stationary Hawkes process and light-tailed claim sizes. Recently, Refs.[10,11] considered the claim-number processes may not be stationary and ergodic and satisfy the large deviations principle (LDP for short). A family of probability measures {μt}t(0,)Mathematical equation on a Hausdorff topological space (M,M)Mathematical equation satisfies the LDP with rate function I:M[0,)Mathematical equation, if IMathematical equation is a lower semi-continuous function and the following inequalities hold for every Borel set BMathematical equation:

- i n f x B o I ( x ) l i m i n f t 1 t l o g μ t ( B ) l i m s u p t 1 t l o g μ t ( B ) - i n f x B ¯ I ( x ) , Mathematical equation

where BoMathematical equation and B¯Mathematical equation denote the interior and closure of BMathematical equation, respectively, see, e.g., Dembo et al [12] and Bordenave et al[13].

This section still considers the claim-number process {N(t),t0}Mathematical equation satisfying the LDP and investigates the uniform asymptotics of the finite-time ruin probability ψ(x,t)Mathematical equation for the risk model (1). Section 1 presents the main results after introducing necessary preliminaries and the proofs of the main results are given. Section 2 studies a two-dimensional risk model and investigates a kind of finite-time ruin probability by using the results of Section 1.

1 Preliminaries and Main Results

Hereafter, all limit relationships hold as xMathematical equation unless stated otherwise. For two positive functions a(x)Mathematical equation and b(x)Mathematical equation, we write a(x)b(x)Mathematical equation, if limsupa(x)/b(x)1Mathematical equation; write a(x)b(x)Mathematical equation, if liminfa(x)/b(x)1Mathematical equation and write a(x)~b(x)Mathematical equation, if lima(x)/b(x)=1Mathematical equation. For two positive functions a(x,t)Mathematical equation and b(x,t)Mathematical equation, we say that a(x,t)b(x,t)Mathematical equation holds uniformly for tΔMathematical equation, If

l i m s u p x s u p t Δ a ( x , t ) b ( x , t ) 1 Mathematical equation;

say that a(x,t)b(x,t)Mathematical equation holds uniformly for tΔMathematical equation, if

l i m i n f x i n f t Δ a ( x , t ) b ( x , t ) 1 Mathematical equation;

and say that a(x,t)~b(x,t)Mathematical equation holds uniformly for tΔMathematical equation, if a(x,t)b(x,t)Mathematical equation and a(x,t)b(x,t)Mathematical equation hold uniformly for tΔMathematical equation. 1AMathematical equation is the indicator function of a set AMathematical equation.

In this paper, we will consider the claim sizes have heavy-tailed distributions. Some subclasses of heavy-tailed distribution class will be given. Say that a distribution VMathematical equation on (-,)Mathematical equation is heavy-tailed if for any λ>0Mathematical equation,

- e λ t V ( d t ) = . Mathematical equation

One of the important distribution classes of heavy-tailed distributions is the consistently-varying-tailed distribution class CMathematical equation. By definition, a distribution VMathematical equation on (-,)Mathematical equation belongs to the class CMathematical equation, denoted by VCMathematical equation, if

l i m y 1 l i m s u p x V ¯ ( x y ) V ¯ ( x ) = 1 , Mathematical equation

or equivalently,

l i m y 1 l i m i n f x V ¯ ( x y ) V ¯ ( x ) = 1 . Mathematical equation

A related distribution class is the dominated varying tailed distribution class DMathematical equation . Say that a distribution VMathematical equation on (-,)Mathematical equation belongs to the class DMathematical equation , denoted by VDMathematical equation , if for any fixed 0<y<1Mathematical equation,

l i m s u p x V ¯ ( x y ) V ¯ ( x ) < . Mathematical equation

A distribution VMathematical equation on (-,)Mathematical equation is said to be in the long-tailed distribution class Mathematical equation, if for any fixed y>0Mathematical equation,

l i m x V ¯ ( x + y ) V ¯ ( x ) = 1 . Mathematical equation

An important subclass of the class Mathematical equation is the subexponential distribution class SMathematical equation. By definition, a distribution VMathematical equation on [0,)Mathematical equation is said to be subexponential if

l i m x V * V ¯ ( x ) V ¯ ( x ) = 2 , Mathematical equation

where V*VMathematical equation denotes the 2Mathematical equation-fold convolution of VMathematical equation. In the case that a distribution VMathematical equation is on (-,)Mathematical equation, we say that VSMathematical equation if the distribution V(x)1{x0}Mathematical equation belongs to the class SMathematical equation. It is well-known that these distribution classes have the following inclusions

C D S Mathematical equation

see, e.g., Embrechts et al [14]. Korshunov [15] introduced another subclass of the subexponential distribution class, which is the strongly subexponential distribution class S*Mathematical equation. Say that a distribution VMathematical equation on (-,)Mathematical equation belongs to the class S*Mathematical equation, if 0V¯(y)dy<Mathematical equation and the distribution VuMathematical equation defined by

V u ¯ ( x ) = { m i n { 1 , x x + u V ¯ ( y ) d y } , x 0 , 1 , x < 0 , Mathematical equation

satisfies

l i m x V u * V u ¯ ( x ) V u ¯ ( x ) = 2 Mathematical equation

uniformly for u[1,)Mathematical equation. Korshunov [15] pointed out that the Pareto distribution with parameter exceeding one, the lognormal distribution and the Weibull distribution with suitably chosen parameters belong to the class S*Mathematical equation and the class S*Mathematical equation almost coincides with the class of subexponential distributions with finite means. For the distributions with finite means the following relationships hold

D S * S Mathematical equation

see, e.g., Korshunov [15] and Kaas et al[16].

This paper mainly considers the claim-number process {N(t),t0}Mathematical equation satisfying the LDP. We first present the following assumption.

Assumption A 1) P(N(t)/t)Mathematical equation satisfies the LDP with rate function I()Mathematical equation such that I(x)=0Mathematical equation if and only if x=zMathematical equation, where zMathematical equation is a positive constant.

2) I()Mathematical equation is increasing on [z,)Mathematical equation and decreasing on [0,z]Mathematical equation.

As noted in Remark 2.1 of Fu et al[10], the linear Hawkes process defined in Section 1 of Bordenave et al[13] satisfies Assumption A. One can see Lefevere et al[17], Macci et al [18] and Jiang et al[19] for some other counting processes satisfying the LDP.

The following is the main result of this section.

Theorem 1   Consider the risk model (1). Suppose that Assumption A holds. If FS*Mathematical equation and vc/z-E(X1)>0Mathematical equation, then

ψ ( x , t ) ~ 1 v x x + v z t F ¯ ( y ) d y Mathematical equation(3)

holds uniformly for t[f(x),)Mathematical equation, where f: [0,)[0,)Mathematical equation is an infinitely increasing function.

Before giving the proof of Theorem 1, we first present a lemma, which follows from Lemmas 1 and 9 in Korshunov [15](see also Lemma 2.2 in Leipus and Šiaulys[3]).

Lemma 1   Let {ξi,i1}Mathematical equation be i.i.d. random variables with common distribution VMathematical equation and finite mean Eξ1<0Mathematical equation.

1) If VMathematical equation , then for sufficiently large xMathematical equation,

P ( m a x 1 k n i = 1 k ξ i > x ) 1 - ε 1 ( x ) | E ξ 1 | x x + n | E ξ 1 | V ¯ ( u ) d u Mathematical equation

holds uniformly for integers n1Mathematical equation;

2) If VS*Mathematical equation, then for sufficiently large xMathematical equation,

P ( m a x 1 k n i = 1 k ξ i > x ) 1 + ε 2 ( x ) | E ξ 1 | x x + n | E ξ 1 | V ¯ ( u ) d u Mathematical equation

holds uniformly for integer n1Mathematical equation, where ε1(x)Mathematical equation and ε2(x)Mathematical equation are some positive vanishing functions as xMathematical equation.

In the following we prove Theorem 1.

Proof of Theorem 1   By Assumption A, for any fixed w1<zMathematical equation and w2>zMathematical equation, there exist some constants δ1>0Mathematical equation and δ2>0Mathematical equation such that I(w1)-δ1>0,Mathematical equationI(w2)-δ2>0Mathematical equation and for sufficiently large tMathematical equation,

P ( N ( t ) / t w 1 ) e - t ( I ( w 1 ) - δ 1 ) Mathematical equation(4)

and

P ( N ( t ) / t w 2 ) e - t ( I ( w 2 ) - δ 2 ) Mathematical equation(5)

where the facts I(x)>0Mathematical equation for xzMathematical equation and I()Mathematical equation is decreasing on [0,z]Mathematical equation and increasing on [z,)Mathematical equation have been used.

Note that for all x0Mathematical equation and t0Mathematical equation,

ψ ( x , t ) = P ( s u p 1 k N ( t ) ( i = 1 k X i - c i = 1 k θ i ) > x ) . Mathematical equation

For any infinitely increasing function f(x)Mathematical equation, we will prove

ψ ( x , t ) 1 v x x + v z t F ¯ ( y ) d y Mathematical equation(6)

and

ψ ( x , t ) 1 v x x + v z t F ¯ ( y ) d y Mathematical equation(7)

hold uniformly for t[f(x),)Mathematical equation, respectively.

Firstly, we show the asymptotic upper bound (7). For any ε>0,x0Mathematical equation and t>0Mathematical equation, we have

ψ ( x , t ) = P ( s u p 1 k N ( t ) ( i = 1 k X i - c i = 1 k θ i ) > x , N ( t ) ( 1 + ε ) z t ) + P ( s u p 1 k N ( t ) ( i = 1 k X i - c i = 1 k θ i ) > x , N ( t ) > ( 1 + ε ) z t ) = : ψ 1 ( x , t ) + ψ 2 ( x , t ) . Mathematical equation

For any δ(0,v/c)Mathematical equation, let

A = s u p 1 k ( 1 + ε ) z t i = 1 k ( X i - c ( 1 z - δ ) ) , Mathematical equation

B = c s u p k 1 i = 1 k ( ( 1 z - δ ) - θ i )   a n d   B + m a x { B , 0 } . Mathematical equation

It follows from the conditions of the risk model that AMathematical equation and B+Mathematical equation are independent.

We first estimate ψ1(x,t)Mathematical equation. Let CE(X1-c(1/z-δ))=cδ-v<0Mathematical equation. Therefore, for all x0,Mathematical equationy(0,x/2]Mathematical equation and t>0,Mathematical equation

ψ 1 ( x , t ) P ( s u p 1 k ( 1 + ε ) z t i = 1 k (   X i - c ( 1 z - δ ) ) + c s u p k 1 i = 1 k ( ( 1 z - δ ) - θ i ) > x ) P ( A + B + > x ) 0 x - y P ( A > x - u ) P ( B + d u ) + P ( B + > x - y ) = : ψ 11 ( x , t ) + ψ 12 ( x , t ) Mathematical equation

Using the line of the proof of Proposition 2.1 of Leipus and Šiaulys [3], we know that for all x0,y(0,x/2]Mathematical equation and t>0Mathematical equation,

0 x - y P ( A > x - u ) P ( B + d u ) ( 1 + α ( y ) ) | C | 0 x - y ( x - u x - u + v z t ( 1 + ε ) F ¯ ( v ) d v ) P ( B + d u ) , Mathematical equation

where α()Mathematical equation is a positive function satisfying limyα(y)=0.Mathematical equation Let JMathematical equation denote the integral of the right side in the above inequality and GB+Mathematical equation be the distribution of the random variable B+Mathematical equation. By Fubini's theorem, for all x0,y(0,x/2]Mathematical equation and t>0Mathematical equation,

J = 0 x - y ( x x + v z t ( 1 + ε ) F ¯ ( w - u ) d w ) G B + ( d u ) x x + v z t ( 1 + ε ) F * G B + ¯ ( w ) d w . Mathematical equation

Let w2=(1/z-δ)-1Mathematical equation in (5). Since 0<δ<v/c<1/zMathematical equation, it knows that w2>zMathematical equation. By (5) there exists a constant δ2>0Mathematical equation such that for sufficiently large xMathematical equation,

P ( B > x ) k = 1 P ( i = 1 k θ i < k ( 1 z - δ ) - x c ) Mathematical equation

k x z / c 1 - z δ P ( i = 1 k θ i < k ( 1 z - δ ) ) Mathematical equation

k x z / c 1 - z δ P ( N ( k ( 1 z - δ ) ) k ) Mathematical equation

k x z / c 1 - z δ e x p ( - k ( 1 z - δ ) ( I ( ( 1 z - δ ) - 1 ) - δ 2 ) ) Mathematical equation

e x p ( - x c ( I ( ( 1 z - δ ) - 1 ) - δ 2 ) ) 1 - e x p ( - ( 1 z - δ ) ( I ( ( 1 z - δ ) - 1 ) - δ 2 ) ) Mathematical equation

= : d 1 e x p ( - d 2 x ) Mathematical equation(8)

where

d 1 = ( 1 - e x p ( - ( 1 z - δ ) ( I ( ( 1 z - δ ) - 1 ) - δ 2 ) ) ) - 1 > 0 Mathematical equation

and

d 2 = c - 1 ( I ( ( 1 z - δ ) - 1 ) - δ 2 ) > 0 . Mathematical equation

Thus for x>0,Mathematical equation

G ¯ B + ( x ) = P ( B + > x ) = P ( B > x ) d 1 e x p ( - d 2 x ) . Mathematical equation

Since FS*SMathematical equation, it holds that G¯B+(x)=o(F¯(x)).Mathematical equation By Corollary 3.18 of Foss et al[20],

F * G B + ¯ ( x ) ~ F ¯ ( x ) . Mathematical equation

Consequently, there exists a positive function β(x)0Mathematical equation such that for sufficiently large xMathematical equation,

J ( 1 + β ( x ) ) x x + v z t ( 1 + ε ) F ¯ ( u ) d u Mathematical equation

= ( 1 + β ( x ) ) x x + v z t F ¯ ( u ) d u ( 1 + x + v z t x + v z t ( 1 + ε ) F ¯ ( u ) d u x x + v z t F ¯ ( u ) d u ) Mathematical equation

( 1 + β ( x ) ) ( 1 + ε ) x x + v z t F ¯ ( u ) d u Mathematical equation(9)

So, for all t>0,y(0,x/2]Mathematical equation and sufficiently large xMathematical equation,

0 x - y P ( A > x - u ) P ( B + d u ) Mathematical equation

( 1 + α ( y ) ) ( 1 + β ( x ) ) ( 1 + ε ) | C | x x + v z t F ¯ ( u ) d u Mathematical equation(10)

By (10), it holds for all t>0,y(0,x/2]Mathematical equation and sufficiently large xMathematical equation that

ψ 11 ( x , t ) ( 1 + α ( y ) ) ( 1 + β ( x ) ) ( 1 + ε ) | C | x x + v z t F ¯ ( u ) d u , Mathematical equation

which shows that

l i m s u p ε 0 l i m s u p δ 0 l i m s u p x s u p t [ f ( x ) , ) ψ 11 ( x , t ) 1 v x x + v z t F ¯ ( u ) d u 1 Mathematical equation(11)

In the following, we deal with ψ12(x,t)Mathematical equation. Using (8), for sufficiently large xMathematical equation, we have

P ( B + > x - y ) k ( x - y ) z c ( 1 - z δ ) e x p ( - k ( 1 z - δ ) ( I ( ( 1 z - δ ) - 1 ) - δ 2 ) ) Mathematical equation

d 1 e x p ( - d 2 ( x - y ) ) . Mathematical equation

Since tf(x)Mathematical equation and f(x)Mathematical equation as xMathematical equation, for sufficiently large xMathematical equation, it holds that t1/vzMathematical equation. Therefore, by FS*SMathematical equation, for all tf(x)Mathematical equation and y(0,x/2]Mathematical equation, it holds that

P ( B + > x - y ) x x + v z t F ¯ ( u ) d u P ( B + > x 2 ) x x + 1 F ¯ ( u ) d u d 1 e - d 2 x / 2 F ¯ ( x + 1 ) 0 Mathematical equation(12)

Combining with (12) yields that

l i m s u p x s u p t [ f ( x ) , ) ψ 12 ( x , t ) 1 v x x + v z t F ¯ ( y ) d y = 0 Mathematical equation(13)

By (11) and (13), we get

l i m s u p ε 0 l i m s u p x s u p t [ f ( x ) , ) ψ 1 ( x , t ) 1 v x x + v z t F ¯ ( u ) d u 1 Mathematical equation(14)

Next, we will estimate the asymptotic upper bound of ψ2(x,t)Mathematical equation. We first deal with the process {N(t),t0}Mathematical equation. By (5), for w2̃=(1+ε)z>zMathematical equation, there exists δ2̃>0Mathematical equation such that I((1+ε)z)-δ2̃>0Mathematical equation and for all t[f(x),),γ>0Mathematical equation and sufficiently large xMathematical equation,

n > ( 1 + ε ) z t ( 1 + γ ) n P ( N ( t ) n ) n > ( 1 + ε ) z t ( 1 + γ ) n P ( N ( n ( 1 + ε ) z ) n ) Mathematical equation

n > ( 1 + ε ) z t ( 1 + γ ) n e x p ( - n ( 1 + ε ) z ( I ( ( 1 + ε ) z ) -   δ 2 ̃ ) ) Mathematical equation(15)

It holds for all x0Mathematical equation and t0Mathematical equation that

ψ 2 ( x , t ) n > ( 1 + ε ) z t P ( s u p 1 k n i = 1 k X i > x , N ( t ) = n ) Mathematical equation

= n > ( 1 + ε ) z t F * n ¯ ( x ) P ( N ( t ) = n ) Mathematical equation(16)

Since FS*SMathematical equation, by Kesten's bound, for 0<γ<exp((I((1+ε)z)-δ2̃)((1+ε)z))-1Mathematical equation, there exists l=l(γ)>0Mathematical equation such that for any x0Mathematical equation and n1Mathematical equation,

F * n ¯ ( x ) l ( 1 + γ ) n F ¯ ( x ) Mathematical equation(17)

Therefore, by FS*Mathematical equation and (15)-(17),

l i m s u p x s u p t [ f ( x ) , ) ψ 2 ( x , t ) x x + v z t F ¯ ( u ) d u l i m s u p x s u p t [ f ( x ) , ) F ¯ ( x ) x x + v z t F ¯ ( u ) d u Mathematical equation

l i m s u p x s u p t [ f ( x ) , ) l n > ( 1 + ε ) z t ( 1 + γ ) n e x p ( - n ( 1 + ε ) z ( I ( ( 1 + ε ) z ) - δ 2 ̃ ) ) Mathematical equation

l i m s u p x F ¯ ( x ) F ¯ ( x + 1 ) l i m s u p x s u p t [ f ( x ) , ) l n > ( 1 + ε ) z t ( 1 + γ ) n e x p ( - n ( 1 + ε ) z ( I ( ( 1 + ε ) z ) - δ 2 ̃ ) ) Mathematical equation

= 0 Mathematical equation(18)

Thus, by (14) and (18),

l i m s u p x s u p t [ f ( x ) , ) ψ ( x , t ) 1 v x x + v z t F ¯ ( u ) d u 1 . Mathematical equation

This completes the proof of (7).

Next we prove the asymptotic lower bound (6). For any ε>0Mathematical equation, by (4), for w1=z1+zε<zMathematical equation, there exists δ1>0Mathematical equation such that I(z1+zε)-δ1>0Mathematical equation and for sufficiently large MMathematical equation,

P ( c   s u p k 1 i = 1 k ( θ i - ( 1 / z + ε ) ) M ) Mathematical equation

k = 1 P ( i = 1 k θ i M + k c ( 1 / z + ε ) c ) Mathematical equation

k = 1 P ( N ( M + k c ( 1 / z + ε ) c ) k ) Mathematical equation

k = 1 P ( N ( M + k c ( 1 / z + ε ) c ) M + k c ( 1 / z + ε ) c z 1 + z ε ) Mathematical equation

k = 1 e x p ( - M + k c ( 1 / z + ε ) c ( I ( z / ( 1 + z ε ) ) - δ 1 ) ) Mathematical equation

= e x p ( - M c ( I ( z / ( 1 + z ε ) ) - δ 1 ) ) Mathematical equation

k = 1 e x p ( - k ( 1 / z + ε ) ( I ( z / ( 1 + z ε ) ) - δ 1 ) ) Mathematical equation

0 a s M Mathematical equation(19)

Thus, by (19), for any 0<ε<1Mathematical equation,

l i m i n f M P ( c i n f k 1 i = 1 k ( 1 z + ε - θ i ) > - M ) Mathematical equation

= l i m i n f M P ( c s u p k 1 i = 1 k ( θ i - ( 1 z + ε ) ) < M ) = 1 Mathematical equation(20)

For the above ε>0Mathematical equation, let v˜c(1/z+ε)-EX1,Mathematical equation then v˜>0Mathematical equation and v˜vMathematical equation as ε0Mathematical equation. Thus, for the above ε>0Mathematical equation and M>0Mathematical equation, and for all t[f(x),)Mathematical equation, by Lemma 1,

ψ ( x , t ) Mathematical equation

P ( s u p 1 k N ( t ) i = 1 k ( X i - c ( 1 z + ε ) ) + c i n f k 1 i = 1 k ( 1 z + ε - θ i ) > x ) Mathematical equation

P ( s u p 1 k N ( t ) i = 1 k ( X i - c ( 1 z + ε ) ) > x + M   , Mathematical equation

c i n f k 1 i = 1 k ( 1 z + ε - θ i ) > - M ) Mathematical equation

n ( 1 - ε ) z t P ( s u p 1 k n i = 1 k ( X i - c ( 1 z + ε ) ) > x + M ) Mathematical equation

× P ( c i n f k 1 i = 1 k ( 1 z + ε - θ i ) > - M , N ( t ) = n ) Mathematical equation

n ( 1 - ε ) z t 1 v ˜ i n f s > x F ¯ ( s + M + c ( 1 z + 1 ) ) F ¯ ( s ) x x +   v ˜ ( 1 - ε ) z t F ¯ ( y ) d y Mathematical equation

× P ( c i n f k 1 i = 1 k ( 1 z + ε - θ i ) > - M , N ( t ) = n ) Mathematical equation

( 1 - ε ) P ( c i n f k 1 i = 1 k ( 1 z + ε - θ i ) > - M , N ( t ) ( 1 - ε ) z t ) Mathematical equation

× 1 v ˜ x x + v z t F ¯ ( y ) d y Mathematical equation(21)

where in the last step, we have used FS*Mathematical equation and the inequality

a c g ( x ) d x c - a b - a a b g ( x ) d x , Mathematical equation

where abcMathematical equation are some constants and g(x)Mathematical equation is a non-increasing function on [a,c].Mathematical equation

By (4), w1̃=(1-ε)z<zMathematical equation, there exists δ1̃>0Mathematical equation such that I((1-ε)z)-δ˜1>0Mathematical equation and for sufficiently large tMathematical equation,

P ( N ( t ) < ( 1 - ε ) z t ) e x p ( - t ( I ( ( 1 - ε ) z ) - δ 1 ̃ ) ) Mathematical equation

0 a s t Mathematical equation(22)

Since

P ( c i n f k 1 i = 1 k ( 1 z + ε - θ i ) > - M , N ( t ) ( 1 - ε ) z t ) Mathematical equation

P ( c i n f k 1 i = 1 k ( 1 z + ε - θ i ) > - M ) - P ( N ( t ) < ( 1 - ε ) z t ) , Mathematical equation

which combining with (20) and (22) yields that

l i m i n f M l i m i n f x i n f t [ f ( x ) , ) P ( c i n f k 1 i = 1 k ( 1 z + ε - θ i ) > - M , N ( t ) ( 1 - ε ) z t ) = 1 Mathematical equation(23)

By (21) and (23), letting MMathematical equation and ε0Mathematical equation, it holds that

l i m i n f x i n f t [ f ( x ) , ) ψ ( x , t ) 1 v x x + v z t F ¯ ( y ) d y 1 Mathematical equation

This completes the proof of (6).

2 Two-Dimensional Risk Model

In this section, we will apply Theorem 1 to deal with a two-dimensional risk model and derive the asymptotics of the finite-time ruin probability of a two-dimensional risk model.

2.1 Risk Model

In recent years, more and more scholars begin to study different two-dimensional risk models. In this section, we consider the following two-dimensional risk model in which the surplus at time t0Mathematical equation is described as

( U 1 ( t ) U 2 ( t ) ) = ( x 1 x 2 ) + ( c 1 t c 2 t ) - ( i = 1 N ( t ) X 1 i i = 1 N ( t ) X 2 i ) Mathematical equation(24)

where x=(x1,x2)TMathematical equation is the initial surplus vectors; c=(c1,c2)TMathematical equation is the vector of constant premium rates; the claim size vectors {(X1i,X2i),i1}Mathematical equation are i.i.d. copies of (X1,X2)Mathematical equation with nonnegative independent component and marginal distributions Fi,i=1,2Mathematical equation, respectively; {τi,i1}Mathematical equation are the claim-arrival times, which constitute the claim-number process {N(t),t0}Mathematical equation.

The claim inter-arrival times {θi=τi-τi-1,i2,θ1=τ1}Mathematical equation are independent of {(X1i,X2i),i1}Mathematical equation. For the risk model (24), some kinds of finite-time ruin probabilities up to time t0Mathematical equation are defined as

ψ m a x ( x , t ) = P ( t m a x t | U i ( 0 ) = x i , i = 1,2 ) , Mathematical equation

where tmax=inf{s0:max{U1(s),U2(s)}<0}Mathematical equation and

ψ s u m ( x , t ) = P ( t s u m t | U i ( 0 ) = x i , i = 1,2 ) Mathematical equation(25)

where tsum=inf{s0:U1(s)+U2(s)<0}Mathematical equation.

In some earlier works on the asymptotics of finite-time ruin probabilities, an important assumption is that the two kinds of businesses share a common claim-number process and the inter-arrival times are independent or have some dependence structure, see, e.g., Li et al[21], Chen et al[7], Chen et al [8], Lu et al[22] and so on. Recently many researchers have paid more attention to some generalizations of risk model (24), such as a risk model with a constant force of interest or stochastic return, see, e.g., Konstantinides et al[23], Li et al[24], Li [25], Yang et al[26], Cheng and Yu [27], Cheng et al [28], Yang et al[29] and so on.

Recently, Fu and Li[10] considered the risk model (24) sharing a common claim-number process satisfying the LDP (i.e. Assumption A). They obtained the uniform asymptotics of the finite-time ruin probability ψmax(x,t)Mathematical equation for the claim sizes belonging to the class CMathematical equation. In the following we still consider the risk model (24) with a claim-number process {N(t),t0}Mathematical equation, which satisfies the LDP and investigate the uniform asymptotics of the finite-time ruin probability ψsum(x,t)Mathematical equation for the strongly subexponential claim sizes by using Theorem 1.

For the risk model (24), we assume that {X1i,i1},Mathematical equation{X2i,i1}Mathematical equation and {N(t),t0}Mathematical equation are independent. The following is the main result of this section.

Theorem 2   Consider the two-dimensional risk model (24). Suppose that Assumption A holds. If

F i S * , i = 1,2 , F ¯ 1 ( x ) = O ( F ¯ 2 ( x ) )   ( o r F ¯ 2 ( x ) = O ( F ¯ 1 ( x ) ) ) Mathematical equation

and

v ( c 1 + c 2 ) / z - E ( X 1 + X 2 ) > 0 Mathematical equation

then

ψ s u m ( x , t ) ~ 1 v x 1 + x 2 x 1 + x 2 + v z t ( F ¯ 1 ( y ) + F ¯ 2 ( y ) ) d y Mathematical equation(26)

holds uniformly for t[f(x1+x2),)Mathematical equation as x1+x2Mathematical equation, where f: [0,)[0,)Mathematical equation is an infinitely increasing function.

The proof of the main result will be given in the following subsection.

2.2 Proof of Theorem 2

The following lemma is crucial to prove Theorem 2.

Lemma 2   Let ξMathematical equation and ηMathematical equation be nonnegative random variables with distributions VMathematical equation and WMathematical equation, respectively. If V,WS*Mathematical equation and V¯(x)=O(W¯(x))Mathematical equation, then V*WS*Mathematical equation and

V * W ¯ ( x ) ~ V ¯ ( x ) + W ¯ ( x ) Mathematical equation(27)

Proof   Since S*SMathematical equation, by Corollary 3.16 of Foss et al[20] we know that (27) holds. Hence, by (27) for sufficiently large xMathematical equation,

( V * W ) u ¯ ( x ) = x x + u V * W ¯ ( y ) d y   ~ x x + u V ¯ ( y ) d y + x x + u W ¯ ( y ) d y Mathematical equation

= V u ¯ ( x ) + W u ¯ ( x ) Mathematical equation(28)

holds uniformly for u[1,)Mathematical equation.

According to the definition of S*Mathematical equation, we get that VuSMathematical equation and WuSMathematical equation. So Vu¯+Wu¯Mathematical equation is long-tailed. It follows from V¯(x)=O(W¯(x))Mathematical equation that Vu¯(x)=O(Wu¯(x))Mathematical equation. Again using Corollary 3.16 of Foss et al[20], by (28) we have Vu*WuSMathematical equation and

V u * W u ¯ ( x ) ~ V u ¯ ( x ) + W u ¯ ( x ) ~ ( V * W ) u ¯ ( x ) . Mathematical equation

Thus, (V*W)uSMathematical equation by Corollary 3.13 of Foss et al [20], which means V*WS*Mathematical equation.

Proof of Theorem 2   Note that

ψ s u m ( x , t ) = P ( s u p 1 k N ( t ) ( i = 1 k ( X 1 i + X 2 i ) - ( c 1 + c 2 ) i = 1 k θ i ) > x 1 + x 2 ) Mathematical equation

Since FiS*,i=1,2Mathematical equation and F¯1(y)=O(F¯2(y))Mathematical equation, by Lemma 2 we get F1*F2S*Mathematical equation and

F 1 * F 2 ¯ ( x ) ~ F 1 ¯ ( x ) + F 2 ¯ ( x ) Mathematical equation(29)

Thus, by Theorem 1 and (29) for sufficiently large x1+x2Mathematical equation, it holds uniformly for t[f(x1+x2),)Mathematical equation that

ψ s u m ( x , t ) ~ 1 v x 1 + x 2 x 1 + x 2 + v z t F 1 * F 2 ¯ ( y ) d y Mathematical equation

~ 1 v x 1 + x 2 x 1 + x 2 + v z t ( F ¯ 1 ( y ) + F ¯ 2 ( y ) ) d y . Mathematical equation

This completes the proof of Theorem 2.

3 Conclusion

We consider the risk models with a non-stationary claim-number process and obtain the uniform asymptotics for the finite-time ruin probability of a one-dimensional risk model for the strongly subexponential claim sizes when the claim-number process satisfies the large deviations principle. Further, applying Theorem 1 the uniform asymptotics for a kind of finite-time ruin probability in a two-dimensional risk model have been presented.

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